With all due respect to Lawrence Yung, PHD and Lead Economist at N.A.R., and his post in Forbes on 2/3/16 about a re-acceleration of home prices https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrenceyun/2016/02/03/re-accelerating-home-price/?sf20435189=1#5464d7af2149 Boots on the ground in NYC (which many consider to be a proxy for the nation) tell otherwise. His basis is that home prices rose 7.6% nationally over Dec.2014 #’s and a lack of supply. That’s backward looking, reciting the past. The Manhattan numbers show a very different story, and my blog post from December points out the huge influx on new inventory hitting the NYC market (42,000 units + over the next couple of years). The NYC numbers show:
1) Shadow Inventory (the number of listings that had been for sale but did not sell has almost doubled in the last 2 years from 1710 to over 2900 and is still rising. This is potential inventory waiting in the “on deck circle”.
2) Supply (Properties currently for sale) has increased from just over 3,400 to over 4,000 in the last 5 weeks.
3) DOM (Days on Market) has more than doubled from the summer low of 42 days and increased from the fall low of 57 to its current 87 Days on Market, a significant slowing.
4) Contracts Signed in January were the slowest year over year since January 2012.
The takeaway is if you have a reason to sell a property in NYC (and only “IF” you have a reason (Do not, repeat do NOT sell a property with the intention of buying it back cheaper….. Trading the real estate market does not work and you will miss buying it back), today is a better time than tomorrow. We believe prices peaked in the city in the Summer/Fall of 2015, and that the state of the economy, the financial markets, and geopolitics argue strongly in softer real estate prices directly ahead… In short, get it sold while you can…
Charts courtesy of UrbanDigs
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